News flash: the stock market is not the economy! Is everything good anyway?
Maybe.
"U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows as Both Exports and Imports Fall"
Kiplinger's latest forecast on the direction of the trade deficit.
By Rodrigo Sermeño November 8, 2019
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S003-trade-deficit-forecast.html
GDP
2019 growth will be 2.3%; 1.8% in 2020 More »
Jobs
Job gains of about 170,000 per month in ’19 More »
Interest rates
10-year T-notes staying around 2% until trade war ends More »
Inflation
2.1% in ’19, up from 1.9% in ’18 More »
Business spending
Up just 2% in ’19 amid uncertainty of trade war More »
Energy
Crude trading from $50 to $55 per barrel in December More »
Housing
3.5% price growth by year-end ’19 More »
Retail sales
Growing 4.3% in ’19 (excluding gas and autos) More »
Trade deficit
Widening 7% in ’19 More »
The trade war is stupid, Tweety Trump is stupid saying China hates "paying the tariffs," and the long term growth of our economy is already beginning to suffer greatly.
Tweety Trump stupidly says China hates paying tariffs! China is not paying the tariffs, American employers and consumers pay the tariffs.
"What Is A Tariff, Who Pays, And What Is The Purpose Of A Tariff?"
JED GRAHAM 8/29/2019
https://www.investors.com/news/economy/what-is-a-tariff/
"Who Pays A Tariff?
When President Trump imposed tariffs of 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports in September 2018, Walmart (WMT) and other retailers announced that the tariffs would result in some combination of higher prices or lower profits.
Whoever imports a product must pay any related tariff. Bicycles built in China were among the products on the Trump tariff list of $200 billion in imports. A 10% tariff on a bike with a wholesale cost of $60 would add $6 to Walmart's cost of importing that bike.
Yet who ultimately pays the tariff cost is more complicated. Walmart could pay $3 of the $6 cost and pass half of it on to customers, whose price would rise by $3. In that case, Walmart profit shrinks and customers are left with a thinner wallet.
Furthermore, the company exporting the bike to the U.S. could share in the pain. Walmart could demand its supplier lower its price or lose the massive retailer's business.
Still another possible way to offset the hit to business profits and consumer wallets is through currency adjustment. As China's economy has slowed since Trump directed the first broad-based tariffs on Chinese imports in April 2018, the yuan has depreciated about 14% vs. the dollar. If Chinese goods cost American importers 14% less because of a stronger dollar, it becomes somewhat easier to defray the cost of the tariffs.
Yet the yuan's depreciation to date is no match for escalating Trump tariffs. On May 10, Trump hiked 10% tariffs to 25% on that $200 billion tranche of imports that included bicycles. In late August, Trump announced that those tariffs would rise to 30% on Oct. 1."
Deficit is growing as GDP slows and dips below the expected 4%.
Manufacturing is down as steel suffers hit, among other sectors such as coal. Jobs are lost!
Trade War leads to subsidies for farmers and markets lost forever. Call it "welfare" if you want, or anything else, but I call it socialism, and I thought the GOP hated Socialism. Subsidies are socialist!
We have always subsidized farmers, but Tweety Trump is taking it to a new level due to the trade war.
"Agricultural Subsidies"
Chris Edwards 16 April 2018
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/agriculture/subsidies
"The federal government spends more than $20 billion a year on subsidies for farm businesses. About 39 percent of the nation's 2.1 million farms receive subsidies, with the lion's share of the handouts going to the largest producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice.1
The government protects farmers against fluctuations in prices, revenues, and yields. It subsidizes their conservation efforts, insurance coverage, marketing, export sales, research, and other activities. Federal aid for crop farmers is deep and comprehensive.
However, agriculture is no riskier than many other industries, and it does not need an array of federal subsidies."
The conclusion Stop! Let farmers save themselves!
"As the Heritage Foundation has argued, Congress this year should at least repeal the crop subsidy programs added in the last farm bill, ARC and PLC.74 Over the longer term, all farm subsidies should be ended. American farmers should stand on their own two feet in the marketplace, as do businesses in nearly all other industries."
I don't agree with this, but a conservative would most certainly agree, so what is Tweety Trump doing? ADDING MORE SUBSIDIES!
"Trump’s $16 billion farm bailout will make rich farmers richer, report says"
While the top 1 percent of recipients received on average more than $180,000 each, farmers in the bottom 80 percent on average received less than $5,000.
By Laura Reiley 31 July 2019
Tweety says trade wars are easy to win, by whose standards? Tweety has been bankrupt at least five (5) times so how doe she know how to run a business?
